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The war in Yemen

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Pro-democracy supporters on streets of Sana'a in March 2013. Demotix/Luke Somers. All rights reserved.The war which has now started is what many of us feared for
so long and hoped, against all rational thinking, would be avoided. And this
time, let us not fool ourselves with misguided optimism, this will be long and
as awful as any war can be. While political and even military internal struggles
are hardly a novelty in Yemen, the new element is that the conflict has now
added a major layer of international ‘proxy’ features which will only worsen
the situation, making it reminiscent of the Lebanese civil war in the
1970s-80s. 

Why is this the outcome of the 2011 revolutionary uprisings seeking
economic development, justice and dignity, the end of kleptocracy and other
good things? Who is to blame? Could it have been avoided? My earlier articles
provide some of the background to understanding the current situation, and
while many of these factors remain relevant today, and will remain so in the
foreseeable future, the outbreak of full-scale war including foreign parties is
an entirely unprecedented phenomenon which will affect Yemen’s people and the
region for years to come. 

While Saudi Arabian involvement in Yemeni affairs is a longstanding
fact, going back to the Imamate period and the earliest days of the creation of
the Kingdom, this is the first time SA has taken the initiative to launch a
major international military attack, albeit by air. 

It may not be particularly useful to non-specialists of
Yemen to go into the details of the sequence of events since the Huthi coup of
6 February. But a rapid recall of the main events is important. After a month
under house arrest in Sana’a, the legitimate internationally recognised
president escaped to Aden where he attempted to establish a temporary
government. Although the southern separatists, one of whose main strongholds is
Aden, gave him at least tacit support, Huthis and former president Saleh
military forces increased their attacks southwards and rapidly reached Aden
itself.  The ‘popular committees’, ie
local militias supporting him, are no match for Huthi/Saleh well trained and
equipped forces. Since participating in the Arab Summit at Sharm el Sheikh, Hadi
and his ministers are in Riyadh which
has become their operational base.

Decisive Storm

On 26 March, Saudi Arabia launched air strikes under the
name Decisive Storm demonstrating, among other points, that the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) can act without the US with whom their differences have increased
recently [re Iran nuclear deal, Syria etc.]. They still have US technical and
military backing, and firmly support the US through their arms purchases, as
clearly demonstrated by the fact that Saudi Arabia has become the world’s
largest arms importer in 2014 [USD 6.5 billion]. Of the USD 8.7 billion Saudi
Arabia and the UAE spent on arms in 2014, 
USD 8.4 billion is going to the US.

Regardless of the absence of a UNSC resolution under chapter
7 of the UN charter, Saudi Arabia and the GCC members (except Oman), decided to
intervene. Having itself benefited from SA and UAE intervention to save its
regime, the Bahraini ruling family was unlikely to disagree. They had no
difficulty assembling an alliance of vassals, all of whom would be nowhere fast
without GCC financial support. Sisi was unlikely to refuse given the billions
of USD recently committed by Saudi Arabia to Egypt’s economic development, and
its support when the US showed hesitation after his coup. None of the regimes
financially and politically indebted to Saudi Arabia is in a position to refuse
to join this alliance. Not only do the GCC states support these regimes, most
of them dictatorial, but it is far more generous financially than the USA which,
at the very least, pretends to set conditions of democratic procedures and
support for human rights. Pakistan, Jordan, Sudan, and Morocco have all joined
in.  To date, no ground troops are
involved. 

No state other than Iran has condemned the intervention.

The people

Meanwhile the Yemeni people are trapped. A symptom of the
situation is the fact that Yemenis are now seeking refuge in Somalia!  People are suffering daily destructive and
murderous airstrikes. In addition to the fear and anxiety they cause, people
have no idea how long these will last or who/where will be hit next. More than
500 people have been killed to date and 1800 wounded, certainly an
underestimate.

Shortages of food are worsening with lack of imports of
basic staples and fuel shortages for their transport. What food is available is
increasingly expensive. Water is short everywhere but in addition the Huthis
are cutting the supplies to the areas of their enemies: Aden has been without
water for a week. Electricity is intermittent everywhere. 

The country is under blockade with destroyed airports. The
few countries which used to allow Yemenis in without visas, Egypt in
particular, have withdrawn this facility, leaving 4000 or so Yemenis stranded
in a range of airports unable to go home or enter the countries concerned.

The already dire humanitarian situation is getting
worse.  Before the current flare up, the
UN’s Humanitarian Response Plan for 2015 was assessed at USD 747.5 million to
assist 8.2 million people of the 16 million estimated to be in need of various
forms of emergency assistance.  By 31
March this had only been funded to the tune of 8%.

Who is to blame?

The transitional regime remained toothless and at the mercy
of the country’s traditional political forces. 
In particular

–      
The Yemeni political class completely failed to
address the country’s fundamental problems [water, rural development, employment
creation etc] and has spent the last few decades either enriching itself or
involved in in-fighting between its various factions. 

–      
The security reform only affected the top level,
leaving the military institutions loyal to Saleh

–      
The National Dialogue Conference was badly
managed and unable to deal with the country’s main political factions

–      
Interim president Hadi had no power base of his
own and was at the mercy of the Islah party which had the upper hand, leaving
all other main political forces to join the opposition

–      
the international community failed to strengthen
the transition. Nice words to and about Hadi are no substitute for financial
means to effectively rule the country. The argument ‘no development without
security’ ensured that development funding remained on the shelf while only
military/security related investments were made. The country is now eating the
fruits of this development with the well trained Saleh forces and others fighting
throughout the country

–      
The UN element of the transition was left under
the management of an individual who soon lost the respect of the vast majority
of Yemenis

–      
The GCC states, led by Saudi Arabia, acted
according to their real interests, namely preventing the emergence of a truly
democratic entity in Yemen.

What now?

As has been demonstrated all too often and all too clearly,
it is easy to start a war, a lot more difficult to put an end to it. The current intervention has
destroyed a lot of the country’s military hardware, but it has failed to
prevent the Saleh/Huthi forces from taking control of most of the city of Aden
and all the major cities outside of Hadramaut. The so-called al Qaeda takeover
of Mukalla [Hadramaut’s capital] is an exact replica of the manner in which
Ja’ar and Zinjibar were taken over by Ansar al Shari’a [an al Qaeda clone] in
May 2011; here again, for al Qaeda read ‘Saleh irregular forces’.

International media talk constantly of Huthi forces, but in
reality the main military force in Yemen is now that of ex-president Saleh who,
wherever he is, is doing what he promised: destroying as much as he possibly
can, and the Huthis should beware.

The factional and tribal fights which are multiplying will
see shifting alliances according to different criteria, but finance will be
fundamental, reminiscent of the 1960s Civil war after the establishment of the
Republic in 1962.

The humanitarian situation will continue to worsen with not
only shortages of water, fuel and food, but in the absence of any means to earn
an income, poverty will mean people are unable to buy the few goods on the
market selling at inflated prices to make sure that the merchants, at least,
continue to profit.  While the injured
will find it difficult to get treatment [with or without money], the dead at
least won’t have to worry about their future!

This war, like so many others, does not serve the interests
of the majority of the population who seek development, a means of earning an
income and of living healthy and happy lives with their families and friends. Looking
back at the Vietnam War, won exactly 40 years ago this month, why the
sacrifices of the thousands, indeed millions who died in the fighting? Why the
health problems of those who suffered due to the dioxin and other chemicals
poured onto the land by the US army? 
Children today are still born deformed and veterans too poor to live
without selling lottery tickets on the street. 
Meanwhile the country has become a tourist paradise, with good cheap
facilities and only a few posters and banners to remind people of the dreams of
socialism and equity fought over so hard. 
Coca cola and  KFC are everywhere…

The war in Yemen serves the interests of the wealthy, the
leaders of the main factions who have already accumulated billions [in USD] by
bankrupting the country for the past 4 decades. Yet again they are
demonstrating a complete lack of humanitarian concern for the Yemeni
people.  None of the leaders of the
parties involved in the fighting has the objective of improving society, giving
equal opportunities to all or using the country’s resources for the benefit of
the majority.  None of them intends to
invest in social welfare, health and education to improve the overall living
and working conditions of the people. 
Instead the beneficiaries are safe in their bunkers or their palaces in
GCC states or beyond, politicking as ever while the people are being left
without water or electricity when they are not being killed by starvation or
explosives. And arms traders are laughing all the way to the banks.

Decisive Storm will continue: airstrikes will soon become
counter-productive with the population on the ground being very diverse, thus
ensuring that ordinary inhabitants are hit alongside any intended targets. In
addition, the Huthis are already putting their prisoners in or near weapons
stores, so can they still be targets? Saudi air drops of weapons have already
fallen into the wrong hands. The offensive is unlikely to involve ground troops,
but this can’t be excluded. Egyptians will be cautious after their humiliation
in the 1960s civil war in the Yemen Arab Republic. The beautiful country many
of us know and miss so deeply is being destroyed and its millions of generous
and wonderful people are being driven beyond endurance.

The GCC/Saudi intervention was prompted by the immediate
threat of a complete Huthi/Saleh take-over of the country and the prospect of
having a regime closely allied to Hizbollah and Iran on their southern
border.  While Iran manifested only
marginal interest in Yemen and the Huthis until recently, giving them no more
than occasional verbal support, it has now seriously increased its diplomatic
support and backed it up with increasing material support.  There was reason to speculate that this
sudden increased interest might be indirectly related to the nuclear
negotiations and that they might well be willing to abandon the Huthis in
exchange for some positive deal elsewhere. 
Now that the nuclear deal is in sight, it remains to be seen whether
this speculation has any foundation. This, of course, could help shorten the
war in Yemen or, at the very least, reduce its intensity in coming months.  

The UNSC no longer speaks in one voice on Yemen, with Russia
now having an independent view.  However,
given the effectiveness of its earlier actions and decisions, this may well not
be a particularly important factor. 

On a positive note, it can be safely said that the young
democrats, hoping to develop a new politics for the twenty first century, with equity
and well being for all, have plenty of time to reflect and develop their ideas.
There is little prospect of putting them into practice for at least a decade.