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Whose revolution?

Mural depicting ousted President Mubarak, right, and President Morsi, left, that reads "before the revolution, let them be amused, after the revolution, let them be paralyzed."Nasser Nasser/AP/Press Association Images. All rights reserved.The mass
protests that erupted in Egypt in 2011, and their aftermath, were dubbed 'a
revolution' by both opponents and proponents.

The label, on
the one hand, has been used to discredit the protests; described as a
destructive force that is the reason for the abysmal state of the Egyptian
economy. On the other hand, the same label has also been used to romanticize
the struggle against the Mubarak regime and its successors.

A more sober
examination of the nature of these events renders a different picture. It places
the upheaval within a reformist rather than revolutionary realm that had aimed
to pave the way for the development of Egyptian capitalism beyond the cronyism
that had plagued it for several decades. However, a distinction needs to be
made between social and political revolutions in order to identify the position
of Egyptian mass protests either within this continuum or outside it altogether.

A social
revolution can be defined as a process of societal upheaval by which one
society replaces another, and one class the other at the helm. It represents a
clear rupture by which the form of society drastically changes. The classic
example of which, at least based on the Marxist tradition, is the French Revolution.
The bourgeoisie were able to capture the state and overhaul the political
structure in a manner that removed remaining feudal fetters on capitalist
development.

On the other
hand, the outcome of a political revolution involves a change in the nature of
government or the political system with limited impact on the society at large,
and sometimes with limited popular participation. The English civil war of 1640
and the Glorious Revolution of 1688 can arguably fall within this category.

Thus, the goals
as well as the outcomes of a revolutionary process classify events of mass
upheaval as either political or social. However, one needs to take into account
that a revolutionary process is complex and involves a large number of social
forces with conflicting aims who are not always historically conscious of their
mission.

The French
revolution, for example, started as an inter-elite split with moderate
reformist aims. Through popular participation it turned into a radical social
revolution, and the task of paving the way for capitalist development was not carried
out by the bourgeoisie but by the popular classes.

The same applies
to the English civil war. Even though the monarchy was eventually restored, it
performed a bourgeois rather than feudal role, acting as a surrogate for
bourgeois rule. 

When one looks
at the core of the Egyptian mass protests, namely the youth and secular movements
that were anchored in the urban middle class or what can be called the petty
bourgeoisie, one can see that their demands mainly revolved around political
reforms with little social content and limited change in the structure of
government.

The “We are all
Khaled Saeed” Facebook page, one of the largest groups that called for protests
in 2011, had a core message of combating police brutality. However, they had
limited demands for political reform. As a result, this group quickly faded after
the initial wave of protests.

On the other
hand, as Mubarak was deposed and the struggle continued, it was against the
Islamist current, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as the military.
It revolved around the role of Islam in the political system as well as democratic
reform to establish a system based on free and fair elections.

The goal was to
establish a system whereby the coercive power of the state would be restrained and
government corruption would be fought. A liberal democratic regime that would
allow for the development of another type of capitalism, one based on
competitive capital accumulation rather than state subsidies and political
support, was sought.

A brief
overview of the development of Egyptian capitalism since the coup of 1952 will
elaborate this point. The coup of 1952, which brought the Nasser regime to power,
initiated a period of state capitalism while all other centres of economic
power were eliminated. The land reform act was one of the tools used. The
Nasser regime broke the power of the landed elite, who constituted the
leadership of the political class pre-1952.

This was
followed by the sweeping nationalization of the private sector in the 1960s. Surplus
extraction was concentrated in the hands of the state. Towards the end of the
1960s, the state capitalist model had suffered severe setbacks due to the military
defeat of 1967, which exposed the weakness of the regime.

Thus, after the
death of Nasser and the emergence of neo-liberal dogma, Egyptian state
capitalism degenerated into a form of cronyism, where a state-dependent
bourgeoisie started to emerge. The most notable were the military officials, who
transformed the military into the largest capitalist in the country.

In this
situation, the urban middle class were at the biggest disadvantage even though
they were the backbone of state capitalism forming a growing bureaucratic elite as they staffed the public sector as part of the
Nasserist social contract. However, the development of crony capitalism, backed
and grafted by the state, created pressure on the urban middle class, as their
job prospects and social status plummeted.

The
establishment of a liberal democratic system could have restrained this process
of capitalist accumulation and state power. This does not mean that the urban
middle class would have taken control of the state or directly attacked the
crony capitalist class by confiscating their property. On the contrary, during
the recent period of upheaval the protest movement was satisfied with handing
over power to other forces, namely one of its greatest adversaries: the
military establishment. This happened in 2011 and again in 2013.

This has been
reflected in the nature of the struggle and the form it took. For example, one
of the main points of contestation post 2011 was the drafting of the new
constitution, most notably the role of Islam and the role of the military. However,
the military’s economic empire was not a strong point of contention. This shows
the legal and political nature of the struggle and near to non-existent social
nature.

Another
important point that needs highlighting is the urban middle class’ attempts to
exclude the popular classes from the struggle. This was very likely out of fear
of the possible expansion of the upheaval into a popular insurrection. In some
cases, it was done passively, while in others quite actively.

An example of
passive exclusion was the marginalization of the peasantry from the political
struggle, even though they had been subjected to severe repression and
disenfranchisement due to the reversal of the Nasserist land reform act in 1992.

An example of
active exclusion was the attack on a wave of worker’s strikes that had erupted
after the fall of Mubarak in 2011, as they were supposedly disrupting the
“wheel of production” and were believed to be harmful to the nation.

This fear of
the masses manifested itself and no radical left wing movement managed to
capture the moment, unlike other historical instances when the demands of the
masses were embraced and the process of change was pushed beyond its initial
reformist goals.

This has also
made itself clear in the support the current regime enjoys within the urban
middle class. This support is driven by fear of popular upheaval. This,
however, does not mean that there was no popular participation, on the
contrary, the popular classes did participate in the revolt, however, the urban
middle class did not form cross-class alliances in order to take on the regime
and enact drastic changes. 

Based on this,
where does the Egyptian revolt lie?

It would be
very difficult to classify it as a social revolution, as discussed above. There
are stronger arguments to classify it as a political revolution, since it aimed
at changing the form of government. However, upon closer examination one can
shed some serious doubts on this claim.

For example, it
did not aim at capturing the apparatus of the state, nor did it aim at enacting
drastic changes in the structure of the state, especially with regards to the
role of the military in controlling the state apparatus and its penetration of
the economy. Even the notion of imposing taxes on military revenues, which are
currently tax exempt, was never considered.

Thus, the
reforms envisioned were very narrow in nature and did not constitute what could
be considered drastic political change. The Egyptian mass protests can
only be classified as a reform movement, anchored in the middle class, which had
hoped to create a liberal order with limited popular participation. A modest
goal that has degenerated into a full-spectrum military autocracy.