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On the end of Chavism

Dilma Rousseff receiving a Hugo Chávez picture from Nicolás Maduro. Wikimedia Commons. Some rights reserved.

On December 6, the
new members of Venezuela’s National Assembly will be elected. The country
is currently bracing itself for the election, as the results are quite uncertain.
What is beyond doubt, though, is the confrontation between the opposition’s “disaster metaphors” and the “perfect victory” trumpeted by the ruling party, one aiming at consolidating the
Bolivarian process – which is a revolutionary process too, they insist
to say.

If a serious analysis is to be attempted, it should take into
consideration data from nearly two dozen
previous polls – since the elections
of 17 years ago, when Hugo Chávez first became
president in February 1999 -, from public opinion surveys, and from analyses
of the mobilization capacity of the
Partido Socialista Unido de
Venezuela (United Socialist Party of Venezuela – PSUV) and the Mesa
de Unidad Democrática (Democratic Unity Roundtable – MUD).

The country’s difficult economic
situation should not be left out of the picture, together with the shortages and the long queues which, according
to foreign analysts, indicate a "predictable" punishment vote for
Nicolás Maduro’s government and a likely majority for
the opposition.

But this is Venezuela, a country where everyone, both Bolivarians
and antichavistas,
miss Hugo Chávez’s leadership. Economic problems do exist and the government’s responsibility
should be acknowledged, even if Maduro prefers to insist on an "economic
war" being waged against his executive, which certainly
cannot be the only culprit.

In addition, the
country’s biggest external enemy is allegedly
helping destabilization by promoting two boundary disputes: with Guyana – for
the Esequibo territory – and with Colombia – for the smuggling trade and the export of its internal economic, but mostly security problems: hit men and
paramilitaries.

Tibisay Lucena, president of the Venezuelan National Electoral Council, has
warned that there exists a conspiracy against the body she presides, a
complaint that is filed every election year and not always triggered by
internal forces. It has now been the turn to accuse the US Secretary of State
John Kerry, and more aggressive enemies are yet to come, according to the
director of Últimas Noticias newspaper,
Eleazar Díaz Rangel.

It is not at all funny to stand in a queue for eight hours to get food or
medicines. However, the queues are orderly. Scarcity is not only due to bachaqueo or contraband running through the
2,200 kilometre-long Venezuelan-Colombian border. Regulated-price products are
in short supply, and so are all imports at official rates. Controls have proven
ineffective and the currency exchange gap is enormous.

Sixty-six Venezuelan
military personnel were arrested on the border with Colombia, allegedly involved in these continuing criminal actions. Meanwhile, three successive attacks on State
facilities in less than a week presumably
come to show that these are part of a hypothetical radical opposition plan,
which is bound to go on until election day…  and beyond.

The disaster
metaphor

In this pre-election
campaign in Venezuela, the opposition is weaving
its discourse and strategy around
the “disaster metaphor”. It does so, successfully, thanks to its persuasive effect through
reiteration on television, newspapers, internet portals
and radio.

According to
sociologist Maryclén Stelling, "Metaphors, as allegorical elements, express
something that is not necessarily
stated explicitly, but that is sensed and understood through the association of concepts and life experiences." Therefore, words such as landslide, earthquake,
tsunami, storm, erosion, are reinterpreted and given
a new meaning.

Reacting to this, a number
of think tanks advocate reconstruction,
recovery, reactivation, debris removal,
rescue so as to overcome the “disaster”. And the opposition
seeks solidarity (i.e. votes)
in this dismal situation. The last chance
before a step forward… into the abyss.

A government’s victory, or a people’s victory?

Meanwhile, the oficialismo (officialism) insists on a "perfect victory" of the ruling PSUV – on the need, that is, of "the
people’s union to defend the
country (…) and clear the way."
This is Nicolás Maduro’s message:
"There are no predestined victories, we must work hard
for them and enjoy them when they come." "We need a great political victory
(…) to clear the way" and ensure peace in the
country.

Many Chavista leaders who have distanced themselves from the government’s Madurismo point out that criticism and
self-criticism within the Bolivarian process has almost disappeared.

"These
elections are not going to be won by simple inertia because
of Chavismo’s presence. Victory
requires very vigorous and dynamic action on the part of the government," says Alí Rodríguez, former Foreign Minister and Minister of Energy, former secretary general of UNASUR (Union of South American Nations)
and current ambassador to Cuba. But it would seem that what goes with
this inertia is silence, rather than action.

This is why there is much talk about a “people’s victory” – that is, a
victory of the people power that stems from the communes, where consciousness
of the need to keep alive the undeniable achievements of Chavism – as opposed
to the government or the flagging Gran
Polo Patriótico’s (Great Patriotic Pole)
electoral machinery – is still very much alive.

The opposition asserts that
it will win the parliamentary elections
(paving the way for denouncing electoral fraud, as it
has done since 2004, if it fails
to do so), and should therefore put forward, first of all, its
proposals for running the State.
The media which are
siding with them, for example, are opposed to oil price adjustments,
they often express favourable opinions on Guyana, and
are against the peace agreements in
Colombia. Would all this be
defended by the Democratic Unity Roundtable in the National Assembly?

Is this the end of Chavism?

Chávez, together with his top
advisers, created a national
project, which eventually led to
a project of a society beyond capitalism,
and gained hegemony on the basis
of his strength as leader and his strategic capacity. After his death, there has been a break in this internal unity, even
within Maduro’s cabinet, while
loud pressures to end the Chávez revolution from European – particularly French – social
democracy raged, and also from large transnational financial groups and from the Vatican itself.

And
so, contradictory reports
on economic policy are being published while Venezuela’s
president announces the need to adjust oil prices, the
urgency of a tax revolution, and the
development of price control systems… all of which remain
mere announcements.

Today, the economy is in the hands of Brigadier General Marco Torres, Minister
of the Economy, Finance and the Public Bank and chairman of the National Bank of Venezuela, who
announced the organization of workshops with
major global financial companies, such as JP Morgan, inviting them to invest in the country.

This has not resulted
in any policy openings either. But Maduro – who keeps on making announcements
– has been urging to radicalize the
revolution, which would supposedly mean to edge closer to a model based on greater worker participation
and the strengthening of the people’s involvement.

Analyst Manuel Azuaje notes that “the groups within the government have
clashed over key issues such as the direction of economic policy. The passing away of Chávez produced the dissolution of the hegemony of the government project. His
absence has led to the direct confrontation of these groups, none of
which has been able to achieve hegemony.
This is how the vacuum persists".

This
lack of consensus – or convictions – has been used by the vernacular right, in
alliance with imperialism, to intensify its strategies and collapse the country. Maduro has
time and again taken decisions to
reverse measures that had caused
serious criticism and strong disagreement among the Chavista base,
such as repealing the seed law project that opened the door
to transgenic crops and foods, preventing the disappearance of the El Maizal commune, and
suspending the opening of new coal
mines.

But the fact is that
some within the government are committed to a program of economic opening while others listen to
popular demands and make decisions that
reflect the spirit of Chávez. “The return to the past is
not an option, nor is a withdrawal strategy (…). It is
time to recognize the essential
allies and support them in order to
beat those who want to do away with
all that has been achieved, says Azuaje.

Futurology

There
are two possible scenarios:
one in which the PSUV wins the majority of seats in the
National Assembly, and another in which it is the opposition that does it. The 51 MPs proportionally elected would be distributed evenly.
The election would thus be decided in the
circuits, but here the results are more
difficult to forecast only on the
basis of global preferences.

An
“even” election result would
create high voltage tension that would
be further stimulated by fraud
allegations. There would be attempted violence
and actions outside the legal framework
that could end with a defeat of the "insurgents", but would have harmful side effects for the country.

In the event that the opposition won the elections and obtained a majority in the Assembly,
it would have to appoint the president
of the Assembly, and this would
lead to a cohabitation situation. According to
opposition political scientist Leopoldo Puchi, this could
involve both agreements and friction, which would be
resolved with a view to the governorship elections, due at the end of 2016.

If
the situation stumbles and drifts
towards a strong power confrontation next year, the outlet would surely be a
referendum in 2016 or early in 2017. If
the opposition wins two thirds of the seats in the unicameral Assembly in December, this scenario would
accelerate, but this seems today wishful thinking
on their part.

Whether the government or the opposition wins, what cannot be ruled out is an increased tension. Therefore, it
should be managed and processed as from now, for the economic
problems, the hub of everything that happens,
require a program of measures to be applied between December and January. At the political level, dialogue is an
irreplaceable tool.

This article was
previously published by Rebelión.