Sports Card Blogs

The Premier League needs a kn*bhead manager quota

City fan does his working-out…
Your super-computer bit in Mediawatch prompted me to have a look at the run in for the top three teams. First pass, I just scribbled W/L/D next to each fixture simply on initial gut instinct at the end of which I totted up. I was shocked at just how fricking close this is going to be. A bit more thought on each game afterwards hasn’t really changed my mind much apart from maybe one fixture for each club. Obviously, you can’t factor in changes of managers, injuries or massive on-pitch decisions (well, without going ‘wibble’) so I worked on just two basic premises. Firstly, that home advantage will (mostly) be king. Secondly, that Spurs are unlucky enough to have four London derbies coming up and with all the extra baggage that they can entail.

For what it’s worth, my predictions are as follows:

Liverpool

24 Feb Man Utd (a) – D
27 Feb Watford (h) – W
3 Mar Everton (a) – W
10 Mar Burnley (h) – W
17 Mar Fulham (a) – W
31 Mar Tottenham (h) – D
6 Apr Southampton (a) – W
13 Apr Chelsea (h) – W
20 Apr Cardiff (a) – W
27 Apr Huddersfield (h) – W
4 May Newcastle (a) – D
12 May Wolves (h) – W

Manchester City

27 Feb West Ham (h) – W
2 Mar Bournemouth (a) – W
9 Mar Watford (h) – W
16 Mar Man Utd (a) – D
30 Mar Fulham (a) – W
6 Apr Cardiff (h) – W
13 Apr Crystal Palace (a) – D
20 Apr Tottenham (h) – W
27 Apr Burnley (a) – W
4 May Leicester (h) – W
12 May Brighton (a) – W

Tottenham

23 Feb Burnley (a) – W
27 Feb Chelsea (a) – D
2 Mar Arsenal (h) – D
9 Mar Southampton (a) – W
17 Mar Crystal Palace (h) – W
31 Mar Liverpool (a) – D
6 Apr Brighton (h) – W
13 Apr Huddersfield (h) – W
20 Apr Man City (a) – L
27 Apr West Ham (h) – W
4 May Bournemouth (a) – W
12 May Everton (h) – W

Which ends up as Liverpool 30 points, City 29 and Spurs 28 and, therefore, the final 1st 2nd and 3rd PL places.

Sh*t.
Mark (Never wanted United to win a game more in my life) MCFC

Oh and…
The supercomputer referenced by the Mirror isn’t very super if they think Man Utd fans will be happy with a prediction of Liverpool winning the league.

I’ll take no CL for a year as long as Liverpool don’t win the league.
Jamin

Champions League predictions ahoy
Now that the aftermath of City giving Chelsea the bagel treatment in tennis, we can collectively turn our attention back to Europe’s elite club competition.

Last season I received a lot of flak on my analysis that Liverpool’s CL DNA would put them at an advantage against the then-dominant champions elect, Manchester City. Ultimately I was proven correct. Let’s see how I fare this season!

With the second leg in the usually hostile Estadio Dragao, I feel Porto should have enough over two legs to beat Roma. The champions of Portugal, who topped their group unbeaten, should have enough quality against a toiling Roma side shorn of another elite player by Liverpool. Undoubtedly the winner of this tie will be considered the weakest team in the last eight, which is disrespect of the highest degree – but I’ll save that mail for another time.

Pre-Solskjaer and Neymar’s metatarsal rendering him a crybaby on his birthday, PSG were my heavy favourites. Combining Cavani’s probable absence for the first leg, I’m tentatively backing United to progress to the last eight. I don’t believe they’ll leave Paris with a win, but I think they’ll cause the runaway French champions enough problems at OT to leave themselves with enough wiggle room to hold a loss in Paris but still progress overall.

Four times European champions, Ajax Amsterdam, have proven to be the surprise package so far, having smoked Bayern at the Allianz – driving Thomas Müller to do his best impersonation of the Bundesliga logo in the return leg in The Netherlands. Unfortunately, despite Real’s relative woes in La Liga, they’re now second and picked up a vital win away at the Wanda just in time for their return to the tournament that they own. They’ll probably play poorly, and have countless moments where Ajax could and probably should have won the tie, but ultimately Real will progress. Only Europe’s elite have won a single tie against Real in the knockout stages over the last three seasons (Bayern and Juve), and I don’t see Ajax changing that this season.

Jadon Sancho’s Dortmund are running away the Bundesliga in a fantastic season. Spurs are shorn of their world-class forward and are perpetually ‘bottling’ big moments – so this should be academic, right? I’m not quite sure – Bayern’s remarkable fall from grace under Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Kovac is his doppelgänger) has meant that Dortmund haven’t faced anybody domestically this season that I would put on the same level as Spurs, talk less Liverpool or City. With Kane due back in a fortnight, and Dortmund’s propensity to concede goals, I’m backing Spurs to progress on away goals, scored in Dortmund by one Harry Kane.

Cordialement,
Natty

Are Arsenal really standing still?
After reading yet again another article about how Arsenal have ‘stood still’ under Emery, I thought I’d actually do some research on the matter. The findings were interesting to say the least, and only reaffirmed this nagging feeling that I’ve been having, that last year Arsenal would have lost some of the games that they have drawn and/or won this year.

So, I compared this year’s league games to the direct fixtures of last season to see what jumped out. I ignored the fixtures against newly promoted clubs. Here is what I found:

Of the 21 games looked at, Arsenal have achieved less points in four of these games.
* Drew with Chelsea 0-0 last year, lost this year 3-2. (-1)
* Beat Palace last year 3-2, drew this year 2-2 (-2)
* Drew with Saints last year 1-1, lost this year 3-2 (-1)
* Drew with West Ham last year 0-0, lost this year 1-0 (-1)

Of the 21 games looked at, Arsenal have achieved more points in five games.
* Lost to Newcastle 2-1 last year, beat them 2-1 this year (+3)
* Lost to Bournemouth 2-1 last year, beat them 2-1 this year (+3)
* Lost to Man United 2-1 last year, drew with them 2-2 this year (+1)
* Lost to Brighton last year 2-1, drew with them 1-1 this year (+1)
* Drew with Chelsea last year 2-2, beat them this year 2-0 (+2)

Additionally:

Each one of the games where Arsenal achieved less, they achieved less by one goal.
Three of the games where Arsenal achieved more, they achieved more by a two-goal swing, with two games by one goal.
Arsenal have not lost to any team that they beat last year.
In the corresponding fixtures this season, Arsenal have achieved five more points overall, but scored five less goals, and conceded exactly the same number of goals (31)

There were four games where Arsenal scored the same points that were losses or draws this year and last year. Each of these games was against Liverpool or Manchester City.
17/18, scored 4, conceded 12, 1 point
18/19, scored 3, conceded 11, 1 point

Of the games where Arsenal achieved the same points and won this year and last year (8 games):
17/18, scored 29, conceded 5
18/19, scored 20, conceded 6

So all in all, a bit of a mixed bag. That being said however, in a league where others have clearly improved and outspent Arsenal, there is clearly an argument for progress where in fact progress might not have been expected. This is the main point really. How much progress were Arsenal really expected to make under the backdrop of a new manager, in a new league, against arguably two of the best teams in Europe at the moment? Add into the mix the unsettled boardroom and structure element, I think to be five points better off than last year, and to only narrowly lose more points than last year in four corresponding fixtures, is more than a fair return. If we even matched the result in one of those four games where we achieved less points, I’d say the argument that progress has been made would be undeniable. As you were.
Rob Stewart, Carshalton

Arsenal made right call on Ramsey
These days it seems that all ex-1990’s footballers are so desperate for money that they have become the Donald Trump of pundits. The Ramsey situation is a case in point. Merson, Wright and Sutton all seem to be singing of the same hymn sheet that Arsenal’s handling of the Ramsey situation was criminal or stupid. If only Arsenal’s financial decisions could be taken by these business savvy individuals.

Ramsey although a quality player was never an Arsenal mainstay, he always struggled to sustain form and fitness. In 11 seasons he has only managed to play 25 or more league games in four seasons, getting into double figures in terms of league goals only once. This is no Frank Lampard. Ramsey is part of the much hyped but ultimately overrated core group of British Arsenal players that included Gibbs, Ox, Walcott and Wilshere who have all left Arsenal to continue their flaky unsatisfactory careers.

Ramsey was on around £110k a week was he even worth that, probably. What did he do to deserve a pay rise? When during his inconsistent injury prone career should Arsenal have committed to signing a player that’s game is based on his physical attributes to a long term contract that would take him into his 30s? Supposedly Ramsey wanted to double his wages hence take it up to £11m a year for what five years then with some £3-£5m signing on fee then I presume some agent’s fee. Let’s say we signed Ramsey up to a new contract two years ago which ran for five years (i.e. for a further three years when he will turn 31 and be past his peak and have little or no resale value al la Fabregas). That would have cost Arsenal £11m more for these last two years (when we have been paying him “just” the £110k a week) and £33m for the next three years. Add on agents fees and signing on fees and this and keeping Ramsey for the next three years would probably have cost Arsenal £50m. Based on the last three seasons that would have got us an extra 60 odd league games hence Ramsey would have cost nearly a £1m a game.

Sure it would have been good to sign him up two years ago, pay the extra £11m plus signing of fee and agents fee (hence probably around £20m) if we could now sell him for £50m. But would Juve, Barca and PSG have been interested in Ramsey for £50m? Were they interested in Ox for £30m or Walcott for £20m? No. And they would not have been interested in 28 year old, 20 games a season Ramsey for £50m. In truth we would probably have got £20-£30m as we did with Ox and Walcott hence in reality probably have broken even.

Putting Ramsey on a bumper package two years ago would also have destabilised the squad and mean other non-star players would want £11m a year. We’ve all seen what the Ozil contract has done.

So, I just wanted to conclude by saying thanks Ramsey for your work and effort, I wish you the best in Juve and you played a blinder to get that massive deal. But to those that criticise Arsenal, have a look at the numbers above and realise that letting Ramsey go on a free is not the end of the world, sure we could have sold him for £20m last summer but in today’s market that would not get you a lot and who’s to say that Arsenal didn’t try and flog him last summer just they couldn’t find any takers…

Not saying it’s a great deal just not the end of the world.
Paul K, London

…Whichever salary figure you believe, that’s some outlay by Juventus on, by most accounts, a player who has not lived up to the earlier hype.

Juventus revenue is roughly 60% of Man United’s. (Goal.com/BBC).

Good luck to Aaron Ramsey, another example of British players having the balls/gumption to ply their trade overseas. More to the point, another sign Italy’s days of being second best to Spain and England is coming to an end.

Forza Italia, as my cockney/Italian sister will be shouting. A bit funny, as she is a Spurs fan.
Ged Biglin

On Wolves v Newcastle
I suppose he can be excused a certain amount of bitterness when his team gives up a 95th minute equaliser, but as someone who was actually at the game, and so might have seen a few things that weren’t picked up by the cameras, I suggest he look at himself and his team before railing at Wolves and the referees.

As soon as Newcastle went in front, it was obvious the ‘game management’ was going to start, but, unusually, the referee seemed to be wise to it. He warned Dubravka at least twice about the time he was taking for goal kicks, on another occasion he almost had to manhandle a Newcastle player into taking a throw in near their own corner flag, and when, as soon as the fourth official heard up his board showing a MINIMUM of four extra minutes, Newcastle made a substitution, he’d obviously had enough.

While Perez was making his interminable walk off the field, the referee went to several Newcastle players and pointed to his watch, and also did the same to the bench. Benitez was fully aware of what was happening, and for him to claim otherwise, is really not a good look.

As for the supposed foul on the keeper, some referees would have given it, some wouldn’t. Dubravka misjudged the flight of the ball, and in trying to make up. backed into Boly with Boly already in the air. Them’s the breaks, Wolves have seen enough iffy refereeing over the past few weeks to have welcomed one going their way.

For Wolves, they didn’t play as well as they have done recently, but it’s a point won, and Newcastle played far better than their league position suggests. They’ll stay up if they can continue in that vein.

Mind how you go,
Paul (are brackets in or out at the moment?) Quinton